Can the cropping systems of the Nile basin be adapted to climate change?

Abstract Climate change poses a fundamental threat to agriculture within the Nile basin due magnitude of projected impacts and low adaptive capacity. So far, climate on for have mostly been assessed single-cropping systems, which may bias results considering that is dominated by different cropping with about one-third crop area under double cropping. In this study, we simulate single- double-cropping systems in assess two scenarios, i.e. “no adaptation” “adaptation late-maturing cultivar”. We find mean yields maize, soybean wheat decrease future warming without cultivar adaptation. attribute shortening growing season increased temperature. The stronger all (12.6–45.5%) than (5.9–26.6%). relative yield reduction varies spatially greatest northern part experiencing strongest warming. scenario adaptation, show increase (14.4–35.2%) (8.3–13.7%). scenario, farmers could possibly benefit from increasing intensities while adapting cultivars. This study underscores importance accounting multiple-cropping agricultural assessments basin.